Aging machine threatens European economy

receive 800 thousand asylum seekers this year - but the population is expected to decline from the peak they reached it in 2002, amounting to 82 million, to 74.5 million by 2050, according to the United Nations . It is expected that the percentage goes down, who are under the age of 15 to 13 per cent, among the lowest percentages in the world. The share of those who are over the age of 60 is expected to rise from 27 per cent to 39 per cent.

Immigration ethnic mix will change, but it is likely to follow the immigrants who settle in Germany selected style by indigenous Germans, who keep a small number of children to replace previous generations. Wolfgang Schaeuble, the finance minister, said this year: "The demographic change is one of the big challenges that we face."

While many European Union countries face similar pressure, but the pressure from Germany is particularly acute. In the presence of a strong economy and low unemployment rates, the number of inhabitants who are in the declining working-age population, which imposes huge pressure on employers. There is also the potential geopolitical consequences: With the growth of the population in France, Britain and Germany may not remain the most densely populated country in the EU - or even the largest economy after 2050, with consequential effects on the balance of power in Europe.

But as with the population of a country rich high degree of education, in Germany the opportunity to become the creator state in how aging population management. Rainer Klinjholtz, director of the Institute of Population and Development says: "The demographic change need not be is like a disaster. The question is how to respond. All governments accustomed to managing growth. They must now learn how to deflation management. We need to re-examine fully in our societies." .

The problem is that perennial communities are not necessarily good at re-thinking. While expressing a lot of older people expressed their concern about the wider society, when it comes to policy, they tend to care much for themselves and their pensions. And governments are working to satisfy their demands: The largest spending distributions German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to reduce the minimum age of retirement to 63 years for long-service workers and raise the pensions of non-working mothers. Klinjholtz says: "This kind of behavior could get worse."

German demographic challenge stems from the declining birth rate. After 1945, the governments of West Germany stuck to the view that it should be a concern for children and women to care for them at home, and provided child care subsidized by the state and other forms of support for working mothers less than what was provided by France or the United Kingdom. And Bmusbandthn choose between work or children, many Germans women chose their jobs.

Since German reunification in 1990, authorities tried to catch up, especially through the expansion of the kindergarten, but they are struggling in the face of popular free children's lifestyle. The fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman, compared the B-2 (replacement rate) in France, and 1.8 in the United Kingdom, and an average of 1.6 in the EU. Deutsche Bank said in a report: "Despite the huge investments in captivity policy, fertility rates have not risen never any large scale."

With the birth of fewer children, Germany become a perennial state rapidly. And an average age of 46 years, Germany only come in second place after Japan. Since now, there is one in every 20 Germany over the age of 80 and by 2050, the ratio will be one to six, according to United Nations data.

The challenges are compounded by internal transformations. After a lapse of decades of flight of the British public and the French from small villages to urban areas, it is attracting German youth through the excitement in the major cities. This process fell long because of the German decentralized structure, which encouraged people to stay in their areas, and because of the proliferation of small companies owned by families that offer high quality apprenticeship, even in places that are not fashionable.

But with cheaper travel, the German young people became worried and became a university study prefers to train factories. Therefore, while the decline in the overall population slightly since 2000, but the total in the major cities - Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Cologne and Frankfurt - rose by almost 10 per cent.

The compounding of these moves is to shift westward by two million people of East Germans after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to seek work opportunities. If East Germany remained independent or a separate country, it would have a greater number of older people in the world, with an average lifespan of up to more than 47 years.

But the GDR - previously - not alone, as Ootenstean indicates. The population of the surrounding area dropped almost 15 per cent during the past 20 years, it is expected to fall by a further 15 per cent over the next ten years. There is no shortage of jobs, but young people prefer to live in neighboring cities, such as Hanover. He denies Feiner, Mayor Outinstein, to be hiring his own family at the expense of other villages campaign. But an official in the federal government says, "Of course, there is increasing competition between communities on the population. Sweeteners must compete not only for jobs, but on the attractiveness of their towns or villages."

I stopped the wave of immigration - as a result of the crises in the Middle East and Africa - the decline in the number of the national population, with net inflows of immigrants up to more than 400 thousand people annually during the past two years, higher than the annual average in the recent period, the 100 thousand immigrants. And almost certainly that net immigration to Germany will rise this year.

But Berlin assume that this wave is temporary. According to their accounts, even if the average net inflow of long-term increased to 200 thousand per year, will remain in the population decline. Such continued increase is considered unlikely because the United Nations projections show that the Eastern European States, which has long been the largest immigration tanks to Germany, are the same facing declines in their populations. At the same time, many Germans fear that the arrival of more immigrants, asylum seekers, such as North Africa and the Middle East, may make it difficult for them to integrate with the community.

For employers, the most pressing challenge is the growing shortage of skilled labor. With the unemployment rate at a level of only 6 per cent, to have the work of a weak market somewhat - At a time when the retiring generation born after World War II, will be a more complicated situation than before. It accounts Broujnos Research Institute suggests that companies will suffer a shortage of skilled workers in the range of 1.8 million people by 2020, and 3.9 million people by 2040.